It is not known whether this information is up to date with the current iRO updates.  However, it can give you an idea of your over-upgrading chances.  Remember:  Level 10 Weapon Research adds a 10% bonus when over-upgrading!

Armor
 
Costs: 5,000z and 1 Elunium

 Upgrade

Added DEF

Success Rate

+1

1(0.8)

100%

+2

2(1.6)

100%

+3

3(2.4)

100%

+4

4(3.2)

100%

+5

5(4.0)

50%

+6

6(4.8)

40%

+7

7(5.6)

40%

+8

8(6.4)

20%

+9

9(7.2)

20%

+10

10(8.0)

10%

Dream Merchants

Upgrading

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refining items.jpg

Level 1 Weapons
 
Costs: 50z and 1 Phracon

 Upgrade

ATK

Success Rate

+1

+3

100%

+2

+4

100%

+3

+6

100%

+4

+8

100%

+5

+10

100%

+6

+12

100%

+7

+14

100%

+8

+18

60%

+9

+21

40%

+10

+25

20%

Level 3 Weapons
 
Costs: 5,000z and 1 Oridecon

 Upgrade

ATK

Success Rate

+1

+5

100%

+2

+10

100%

+3

+15

100%

+4

+20

100%

+5

+25

100%

+6

+34

60%

+7

+43

50%

+8

+52

20%

+9

+61

20%

+10

+70

10%

Level 2 Weapons
 
Costs: 200z and
1 Emveretarcon

Upgrade

ATK

Success Rate

+1

+3

100%

+2

+6

100%

+3

+9

100%

+4

+12

100%

+5

+15

100%

+6

+18

100%

+7

+24

60%

+8

+29

40%

+9

+35

20%

+10

+40

20%

Level 4 Weapons
 
Costs: 20,000z and 1 Oridecon
(zeny amount not confirmed)

 Upgrade

ATK

Success Rate

+1

+7

100%

+2

+14

100%

+3

+21

100%

+4

+28

100%

+5

+42

50%

+6

+56

40%

+7

+70

40%

+8

+84

20%

+9

+98

20%

+10

+112

10%

This is from my own research.  Please tell me if I made a mistake or forgot to add something!!

Have Screenies? See an Error? Something to Add? E-mail Ruby !!